N/HNajmul Hussain

trends · 1 min · dec 28, 2025

Seven shifts bank leaders should plan for in 2026

What the last quarter of 2025 tells boards and executive teams to put in next year's plan, and how strong the evidence is for each.

Najmul HussainDec 28, 2025 · 1 min read

A financial district skyline across the water at dusk — Photo: Sjuan Dogjani / Pexels

tl;dr

→ Stablecoins, crypto charters and agentic commerce are moving from experiment to regulated reality.
→ Fraud liability and supervisory focus are shifting in ways that change where banks should spend.
→ Regional consolidation is back, which forces every mid-sized bank to choose a strategy.

Every December I try to separate the signals that deserve a line in next year's plan from the noise that deserves a watching brief. The last quarter of 2025 was unusually rich in signals, because several long-running debates turned into concrete rules, charters and standards.

Each shift below carries a signal strength: how clearly the evidence already points in one direction, not how important I think the theme is. Five means the direction is set in rules or deals already announced; three means the direction is clear but the timing and scale are not. Where I have written about a shift in more depth, the link takes you to the analysis.

The common thread is that 2026 is less about new technology and more about who carries the risk. Stablecoin rules decide who bears liquidity risk; fraud reform decides who bears scam losses; charters decide who is supervised for custody; and agentic commerce will decide who is accountable when software spends a customer's money. Plan for the risk transfers, and the technology choices get easier.

01
Stablecoins get rulebooks, not bans
Regulators are now writing detailed regimes for payment stablecoins, including holding limits and backing requirements in the UK. Expect 2026 to be the year banks decide whether to issue, partner or compete with tokenised deposits.
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signal strengthvery strong
02
Crypto firms become banks
Conditional national trust charters for five digital-asset firms mean custody and settlement will be contested by federally supervised specialists. Incumbent custodians need a clear answer on digital assets.
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signal strengthstrong
03
Fraud losses move onto bank balance sheets
Europe's payment reform makes banks refund impersonation fraud and gives them a claim against platforms that ignore scam content. Fraud prevention budgets should now be set like credit loss budgets.
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signal strengthstrong
04
Regional consolidation resumes
Large regional deals are being announced again on the expectation of faster approvals. Mid-sized banks need to decide whether they are buyers, targets or specialists before the market decides for them.
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signal strengthstrong
05
AI agents arrive at checkout
Card networks are standardising how merchants verify AI shopping agents. Volumes are small, but the consent and dispute questions land on issuers, so the strategy work should start now.
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signal strengthmoderate
06
Supervision narrows to material financial risk
US supervisors are refocusing examinations on material financial risk and away from softer categories. Banks should expect fewer findings on process and sharper scrutiny of capital, liquidity and credit.
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signal strengthmoderate
07
Generative AI moves from copilots into operations
The largest banks are moving from assistants that help staff to agents that complete multi-step operational work. The constraint in 2026 will be governance and measurement, not model capability.
signal strengthmoderate

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